Mickey Kaus, who was kind enough to bring my Grand Hypothesis to wider exposure through his weblog on Wednesday, referred me to the following e-mail, from an "RP". It's a bit on the longish side, but then again, so is my response, so if you want to skip to the next post, go here. The e-mailer has kindly consented to my publishing his thoughts, so here goes:

Grand Theory that documents are forgeries but transcribed from handwritten notes taken after viewing the originals has some flaws.

1) If true the documents shouldn't have any errors of style or jargon that have also come into question (e.g. OETR vs. OER, billet vs. a more appropriate word for slot in the air force). Presumably Killian wouldn't make those mistakes.

2) If true, isn't it possible that they still could be substantially or slightly embellished? Why bother to reproduce slightly incriminating documents when you can make them blockbuster smoking gun documents? I might change one to reflect a DIRECT ORDER rather than something less inflammatory. How can an accurate but fake document ever make us comfortable with all of it? In fact, why not take the liberty of creating one extra document just to seal the deal. If you are making a forgery, do you really have to be so morally pure as to recreate the original exactly, without changes, and without the addition of inaccurate info?

3) If true, why would Killian create errors of fact? Supposedly there are errors as to when a physical would be required, as in on his birthday. Also the question of Staudt's retirement or of his use of the phrase sugar coat hurts the theory as well.

NEW GRAND THEORY: Rumors of Bush's failure to follow orders, show for a physical, and complete his full requirements for National Guard service have been floating around for a long time in TX politics. The issue has been brought up in every one of his campaigns for office. Each time, opponents of Bush watch the issue not stick even though they know in their heart of hearts, that it has to be true and should ruin him. Someone finally fed up with Bush getting away with this for so long convinces them that evidence is required to take him down. After thoroughly reviewing Bush Guard documents released by the military, an individual Bush opponent decides to create some evidence. It seems easy enough and with the author of the documents deceased, no one can contest them. And if they feel they have stuck almost
entirely to the "word on the street" or "rumor" that exists about Bush's service, then it is believable and quite possibly accurate. Sorry to burst the theory bubble, but this one has fewer flaws.

BONUS PLOT TWISTER (trying to prove that I am a fair and balanced, not so alert reader): Possible that this is an elaborate Linda Tripp like trap for the President to fall into. The documents are in fact forgeries, but exact copies of real documents. The conspiracy is lying in wait with the originals ready to release them once the White House and the President categorically deny their validity. The conspiracy then puts the authentic documents out for verification, they are verified. So not only is the President a "duty-shirker" but also a liar. BUSH LIED AGAIN!!!

I think that this second theory is just as plausible as the Smith Grand theory, but much less than my new grand theory.

Obviously, I propounded the original Grand Hypothesis before Ms. Knox came forward on Tuesday. People who are engaged in a search for the truth cannot let themselves be tied down by speculations that have been proven false, and it's always a good idea to keep Occam's Razor in mind. Even Steven Hawking has to publicly disavow former viewpoints once the facts on the ground make them no longer operative. And if I'm wrong about other particulars, and if the Killian Papers are not what I believe, then I'd like to break that story as well....

The first point is clearly the most troublesome to my hypothesis, if it is correct that the errors of jargon and style referred to would not have appeared in a TANG memo (and since Marian Knox' other statements are the best support I have for the rest of the G.H., I have to reluctantly concede that these probably weren't "verbatim"). Deep ^throat could still have been working from transcribed notes derived from real documents, but made inadvertant changes to the style/format of the documents when he reproduced them later.

His other two points I don't buy, simply because whoever did this had to have known that the real Killian documents might be released at some point, making any embellishment or exaggeration extremely risky. As I posted, the documents themselves, with one exception, do not contain any bombshell evidence, and even the "Direct Order" letter was something that could have been presumed based on Guard policy regarding annual physicals. And if Killian's actual file contained factual errors, such as the exact date his subordinate was required to take his annual physical, Deep ^throat could not well correct those mistakes afterwards if he wanted to avoid getting burned in the event the real documents were released.

The New Grand Theory (and technically, it's a "hypothesis"; none of this has been proven under laboratory conditions yet) brings up a very interesting issue, which is the role of "rumor" (btw, it is not simply a "rumor" that the future President didn't show for a physical; he didn't show up for his physical, period. The controversy has been why he didn't show up, and/or whether his failure to do so was somehow excused.) Although it is unfair to base impressions on people based on rumor, there is often something in the background that gives credence to those rumors, especially rumors as specific as the ones mentioned here. In Bush's case, the "rumors" may well have derived from the documents kept by the TANG, including the Killian file, but which were heretofore kept from public view.

Even more importantly, the one "rumor" about George Bush from that period that doesn't show up anywhere in the doppelgangers is the one about his alleged coke habit. A forger unconcerned about the truth, and hungry to destroy the President at all costs, could have easily dropped a reference in, let's say, the August 1 Memo, alluding to his "recreational" activities, and made it seem just as credible as the other statements. In terms of the public reaction, such a charge would have been far more devastating to the B-C campaign than alluding to what Staudt (or whoever) was doing to Hodges in August of 1973.

In any event, thanks to all of you who responded in the last few days; I didn't get a single comment, even from those who probably believe that yours truly must enjoy a coprophilous existence to come up the idea in the first place, that could be considered rude, nasty, or unpleasant. I can only hope that some of you return in the future.