June 13, 2005

In researching the YBK issue, I've been playing around with a chart that compares the increase in home prices with the bankruptcy rate in each state (and as soon as I figure out how to hyperlink a WORD document, I'll show it to you). One of the things that I noticed when I identified the states with the highest bankruptcy rates is that those states, for the most part, were Red States (ie., they voted for Bush) in the last election. In other words, the less frequently a state's residents filed bankruptcy, the more likely they were to vote for John Kerry. I wonder if that's what Michael Barone meant when he wrote about Soft vs. Hard America.

But there's an even stronger correllation between a robust housing market and Democratic voting patterns. In fact, the correllation gets stronger the further back you go in time. While there are a handful of Blue States in the third quartile of the housing market for 2004, and only one (Michigan) near the bottom, only one Blue State (Michigan, again) was in the lower half from 2000-2004. Going back even further in time, every state (and the District of Columbia) that voted for John Kerry last year, without exception, was among the top 24 states in the country in terms of the increase in residential property values since 1980. The 27 states with the lowest rate of increase, again without exception, voted for George Bush. Only four Red States (Virginia, Florida, Nevada and Colorado), placed in the Booming 24, and Kerry was competitive in each of those states.

I don't know what it all means, but I thought I'd share that with you.

UPDATE [7/1]: Here's the chart I was referring to in the above post.

UPDATE [7/3]: Further musings on the subject, here.

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