Not a Happy Fourth for the Duke. On Friday, the Federales raided his Rancho Santa Fe villa, as well as the private yacht and business offices of his former benefactor, Mitchell Wade. Now, he's cancelled all public activities scheduled for July 4th, which for a politician is tantamount to getting hit on the head three times with a silver hammer while being asked his name. The only reason to cancel would be if he already knew he had lost the support of the local party...I wrote awhile back that Cunningham's seat was borderline safe; he was expected to win, but with a much lower percentage (betw. 57-62%) than other California incumbents. However, Boxer barely lost carried the district last year in her Senate victory, in spite of the GOP registration edge, and it's clear that the seat can't be taken for granted. At this point, he's Condit.

UPDATE: Yeah, I checked, and Boxer lost the 50th C.D. by 306 votes, out of 287,000 cast. Of course, she was running against a well-respected opponent who had won statewide office before, and who had not the whiff of scandal to him, so I think the point still holds.