This article is rather typical of the "analysis" we're hearing in the debate over Alito's prospects in the Senate, so I think it bears repeating that whether the Democrats can successfully block the nomination has absolutely nothing to do with whether Mike DeWine or Lindsay Graham, or for that matter, any Republican member of the "Gang of 14" decides to support a filibuster. If this proves to be a particularly unpopular nominee (as polls from Gallup and ABC-Washington Post already are beginning to show), there will be plenty of other Republicans in the Senate who will be more than happy, when push comes to shove, to defend the prerogatives of the Senate.

The key is whether Harry Reid can keep 41 members of his caucus on the reservation. Then, if Bill Frist (or whoever the Majority Leader will be next January) wishes to invoke the Nuclear Option, we'll see how much support the President, who's approval rating is now hovering in the area Nixon's was at the time of the Saturday Night Massacre, has within his own caucus. If he has the votes, Alito will be confirmed, but the death of the filibuster will be at hand, and a longstanding progressive goal will be accomplished. If he doesn't have the votes, no one will care which side DeWine or Graham falls on.

UPDATE [9/7]: Rick Hertzberg comes to much the same conclusion about why an attempted filibuster may be worthwhile even if the Nuclear Option is imposed, but with bigger, fancier words, in the New Yorker.