50-49-1: That is a not-unlikely partisan breakdown in the Senate that we might see the morning of November 8, 2006, should the Democrats pick 5-6 seats. With the one independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who will probably breeze to victory) certain to vote with the Democrats, this margin would make control of the Senate dependent on the whims of one Senator. Right now, the focus has been on Joseph Lieberman, who continues to hold a narrow lead in the polls running as an "independent Democrat," potentially holding the tiebreaking vote.

But has anyone considered the possibility that Chuck Hagel of Nebraska might be a more likely fly in the ointment? Hagel is clearly estranged from the GOP on a whole host of issues, ranging from the Iraq War to his lukewarm support for some of Bush's more extreme nominees, and has evidenced an intent to run for the Oval Office in 2008, possibly as an independent. In fact, he has been far more likely to buck his party on important issues than Lieberman has with the Democrats, and he wouldn't be as far out of the Democratic mainstream as his Nebraska colleague, Ben Nelson. Is anyone in the Democratic leadership on the Hill putting out any feelers, just in case they need his vote? If not, why not?