September 08, 2003

The latest Field Poll has Bustamante maintaining a five-point lead over the pack...UPDATE: here's the actual polling data. At first glance, it appears that Bustamante may have problems getting above his current total, while A.S. continues to under-achieve, and McClintock may actually have an outside shot of pulling off a shocker. Wiser men than myself have already analyzed the significance of the ethnic and gender breakdown in the poll; what I think is interesting is the fact that almost a fifth of the self-described conservatives polled are undecided, as opposed to only 6% of the liberals polled. With his name recognition, Ahnolt should have already nailed down this group, so the fact that so many are still on the fence indicates that they have a hard time rationalizing a vote for him, but still remaining skeptical about McClintock's chances. If that attitude changes, if the State Senator actually starts running a halfway-decent media campaign, if Bustamante doesn't find a way to expand his current support beyond African-Americans, Latinos and women, and/or if A.S.' idiosyncracies become too hard for the typical Dana Point/Palos Verdes elector to stomach, McClintock could be our next governor.

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