Doppelganger v. Forgery: So far, the dog that hasn't barked in the Killian Papers controversy has been any sort of non-denial by the President. In fact, the original reaction (and thus probably the more accurate reaction) by the White House was to a) dispute the meaning of the documents, by claiming that Bush was actually working to obey the direct order he received; and/or b) accuse the Kerry campaign of desperately trying to reverse its slide in the polls by dredging up old news. Even now, after the authenticity of the documents has been a matter of public dispute for four days, there has been no attempt by the White House to challenge the truthfulness of the contents. And that fact alone, no matter how advocates for the President try to shrink fonts in order to superficially derive a match with certain memos from the Killian Papers, is enough to keep this controversy alive.

I would like to posit another hypothesis, one that I believe is consistent with both sides in this matter. The Killian Papers given to CBS and USA Today, and released to the world by the White House, are documents that were created recently, by a third party from a computer, and did not come directly from any personal file kept by the late colonel. Everything about them, from the typesetting and fonts used to the signature of Col. Killian on two of the letters, are recent creations. However, they are verbatim reproductions of actual documents, documents that may still exist somewhere, probably with the Texas Air National Guard, in their original form.

There are several reasons to believe that this might be a more accurate explanation than anything else we have heard to date. The source for these documents was apparently a retired officer connected with the TANG. If Col. Killian actually had a "personal file", that officer may have had access to those documents. However, he might not have been able to remove those papers for photocopying, so he did what he thought was the next best thing: he transcribed them for posterity.

Perhaps nursing a grudge against the President, this officer may have approached other media outlets for years with the information he had obtained from the Killian file, but without solid evidence, reporters may not have had any desire to pursue something that was little more than a hearsay account of what a long-deceased colonel had written. So, out of frustration, he goes home one night, transcribed notes in hand, and recreates the Killian Papers on his home computer. Suddenly, 60 Minutes is interested, and the documents take on a life of their own. The officer with an axe to grind has people listening to him again. And the White House, knowing that the original Killian documents are identical in content to the doppelgangers provided to CBS, doesn't press the issue.

Why do I think this is a better explanation than what Bush's allies and foes have proferred to this point? Well, first of all, CBS has not yet presented a strong case for the authenticity of these documents. The expert they cited on Friday merely authenticated the handwriting, but I suspect it may not be that difficult to transpose a copy of an actual signature on a fake document, especially one that has been copied and re-copied several times. If they did use forensic typing analysts to authenticate these documents, they have not provided any information as to the names, qualifications, or services performed by those experts. The provenance of these documents has not been established to the satisfaction of anyone. And we do know that most of the experts who have studied these documents have concluded that there is a high probability that they were created by a computer, not an early-70's typewriter.

Second, though, is the fact that witness after witness has stated that the sentiments expressed in those documents reflect the actual state of mind of Colonel Killian during those months. Even his superior officer, who said on Friday that he now believes these documents are forgeries, who backs the President, and who states that he believes Bush was an outstanding pilot, affirmed that Col. Killian shared the opinions expressed in the memorandum, and that his earlier "authentication" was based on a belief that the papers in question were handwritten, not typed. Another officer who worked under Killian at the time stated that the memos were consistent with his normal practices, while the retired general who ran the TANG at that time said it was common practice for his officers to generate personal memos for the file.

And lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the President, who is the one person who could give a categorical denial of these events, has not done so. The single most damning piece of information in any of these documents comes from the May 4, 1972 letter, giving George Bush a direct order to undergo an annual physical. The other stuff, from frustrating his superior officers with his lackadaisical commitment to his duties at that time to the fact that well-connected people were assisting him avoiding the consequences of his behaviour, has already been reported on at length, and the Killian Papers add little new to the discussion.

But his refusal to obey a direct order is a new charge, and, if true, one that should potentially disqualify him from remaining Commander-in-Chief during wartime. It is also a charge that he would have first-hand knowledge of its accuracy; he may not have known what "Staudt" or "Hodges" were doing on his behalf in August of '73, but he should definitely know whether he was given a direct written order from a superior officer that he didn't obey. If the May, 1972 letter is a fraud, and the information contained within is false, he should have said so by now. The fact that he hasn't, and that he has instead used surrogates over the last four days to try to explain away the substance of that charge, speaks volumes.

Anyways, that's how I see it. If you don't buy this hypothesis, let me know.

UPDATE: Dan Rather tonight did another report attempting to justify the story, finally introducing some forensic typing expert to buttress the authenticity of the Killian Papers. Perhaps the most significant evidence has to do with the use of the number "1" in place of the small case "L" (or "l") in some of the documents, something that is more difficult to pull off on a computer. Whatever. This story seems to be petering out; without a smoking gun one way or the other, we may still be arguing about this four years from now.

UPDATE (Pt. 2): Thanks to everyone who has put in their two cents, both in the comments section and through e-mail. The discussion has, for the most part, been civil, even where you disagree with me, and I appreciate that. I will respond in a new post shortly.