The special election to fill the Congressional seat formerly held by SEC chairman Christopher Cox was held tonight, with Republican John Campbell pulling out to a commanding early lead. Interestingly, Campbell received a strong challenge from a well-financed third-party candidate, Jim Gilchrist, who pretty much ran a one-issue campaign on the topic of immigration, so the national GOP poured mucho dinero into the district to prevent an upset. The Democratic challenger, Steve Young (not related to either the quarterback or the local radio host) didn't receive anywhere near the love from the blogosphere that propelled the campaign of Paul Hackett (no relation to the ex-SC coach), and was never a factor in this race.

Things to look at after the ballots are counted: will Campbell break 50% of the total? and will Young hold on to second? Not getting half the votes cast in a conservative Orange County district should be seen as a sign of anger at the President from his core constituents, in one of the few districts in the state that gave him a comfortable margin over John Kerry last year. My guess (not possessing exit poll numbers) is that many of the people backing Gilchrist include voters who do not normally show up for special elections in December, but are people who were motivated to send a message about the "illegals", and Bush's perceived coddling of Latinos. Since Campbell's position on immigration was no less xenophobic than Gilchrist, who was a founder of the Minutemen militia, there's no reason to believe that those voters will necessarily return to the Republican Party in 2006 and beyond. And, of course, the failure by Young to finish ahead of Gilchrist, in a district in which Barbara Boxer narrowly trailed in her Senate race last year, will be a sign that simply being the "opponent" will not be enough for the Democrats to make serious gains on the GOP next year.

UPDATE: Final vote tabulation gives Campbell the victory, but with less than 45% of the vote. Young finished second with 28%, and Gilchrist third with 25%. Campbell's vote declined from his total in October, when he barely missed out on receiving 50%, and he faced a strong challenger from within his own party. Considering Cox typically got 70% in the same district, this is not an impressive win for the GOP. It will be interesting to see what happens in the special election to replace Duke Cunningham next year, who represented a nearby district that is far less Republican.